Friday, December 02, 2005
ahh mariners, how i love thee. we have a new catcher from japan who is going to be awesome for a fair price, and we are closing in on one of the most exciting periods in the baseball season. i know i know, but to me baseball is a year round thing. in the winter, we have some of the really fun stuff. in particular, the winter meetings. everyone in baseball with a reason to think about money will be there, and that is just about everyone. gms, agents, i even hear bret boone is going to be working the floor. last year at the winter meetings, we came out with beltre and sexson, possibly marking the first time we actually came away with something. anyways, i have dec. 5 circled on the calender in my head.
this year is going to be different than last year. last year there were a bunch of good players available. this year there are only two free agents we should be interested in, but i'm getting ahead of myself. so, lets get ready. what do we have now, what do we need, and what is expendable in the event of a trade?
lets look at the batting order (including kenji johjima, because we already have him signed), because the rotation is kind of depressing. i think this is roughly how we ended off last year
1. Ichiro lh rf
2. betancourt rh ss
3. ibanez lh lf/dh
4. sexson rh 1b
5. beltre rh 3b
6. reed lh cf
7. lopez rh 2b
8. OPEN dh/lf
9. johjima rh c
as you can see, we have a spot to add people. i left number 8 open because the people who would have been playing in that spot should not be in our starting lineup next year. the fact that they were last season is one of the main reasons we lost 90 games again. i don't mind them on the bench, but they aren't good enough to start. lf or dh, and we need to add power, preferably left handed power due to the dimensions of safeco field and the short porch down the right field line. ibanez is not the greatest defender, but he is adequate. left center in safeco is huuuuuge, so it would be nice to have someone a little better out there. that being said, jeremy reed was dominant in center last year, which will definitely help ease the pressure on the left fielder. playing center in safeco is probably the most difficult outfield assignment in the major leagues. having a great centerfielder like mike cameron was out there is invaluable to a team that has to play 82 games at home in seattle.
we were expecting jeremy reed to be ok, but eventually be shifted to left because his hitting was more developed than his defense. but jeremy reed excelled. he was awesome. he made diving catches, showed flashes of things to come around the wall, and managed to rank as one of the top outfielders in just about every defensive metric in the crazy world of baseball stats. none of the metrics are consistant at all, but if they all agree on someone, i'm guessing it means good things. i am pissed that his name is being thrown around as trade bait, or that there is talk about replacing him in center with people like juan pierre. reeds hitting was worse than we expected it to be last year, which shouldn't be a surprise. he was 23, and it was his rookie year. i think we should expect him to improve offensively, and that we should leave him in center, which is such a premium position especially for the mariners.
the talk over at my favorite baseball blog is all about jaque jones in left field. he is one of the better defensive left fielders in the game, and he hits for a little power but doesn't get on base much. he has been doing this in minnesota in the metro dome, so i am a little skeptical. but he is left handed, which means he could outperform everyone's expectations like raul ibanez does. still, i think there are better options via trade because jaque jones is going to get overpaid to the tune of 3 years $21 million before this thin offseason is over, and we don't want to get tied down with a contract like that for such a mediocre player. it is just a bad season to be signing free agents. we have much more important concerns in the rotation, and we should devote as much money as we can there so we can at least overpay for good players. anyways, back to the trades. usually when i think about trades, i have a few criteria to keep myself honest. i usually only look at players from bad teams with stupid GM's so i don't have to give up our best players in the process, and i never look at our division rivals. so, i present 3 options. first, the two that are obtainable. Brad Wilkerson of the nationals and Aubrey Huff of the devil rays. the nationals and devil rays can't add to payroll this offseason, so both could probably be had for prospects and spare parts. the nationals still don't have an owner, so their gm doesn't have any financial flexibility. the devil rays have cheap owners, so they are going to suck for as long as they exist. wilkerson will probably make around $5m next year, and huff will make $6.75 if we could flip someone like ryan franklin in a deal including a cheap bullpen guy or a lower pitching prospect for wilkerson, or maybe a 3 way with the marlins that send pierre to the nationals to be their leadoff hitter, or maybe a better prospect like shin shoo choo along with franklin or gil meche straight up for huff, i'd do it. but the guy we really should be focusing on is adam dunn. the reds would be stupid to give him up, but the reds are stupid so this might be exactly the type of move they would make. dunn will probably make $5+m next season, but the season after that he could be in line for $12+ in free agency. so if we can trade for him and immediately sign him to an extension, we might be able to save some money and ensure we get him before the madness begins next season. it would cost us, probably someone like pinero and two good prospects, but it might be worth it. also, one quick move for our bench. colorado would trade us larry bigbe for yorvit torrealba. neither are going to make a difference on our team, but bigbe would give us a 4th of and a lh pinch hitter on the bench. torrealba just wants to start, and colorado doesn't have a catcher.
which brings us to pitching. we have about $20m to spend right now, and only one player as a lock for the rotation. after felix, there is a long freefall to the basement and ryan franklin. we are probably going to have to spend $7m for moyer, which leaves us $12-$15M for pitching. there are only two free agent pitchers worth looking at, aj burnett and kevin millwood. both are going to cost all of our $12-15M to sign, probably at 4-5 years. but we have to get one of them or we are going to suck again. even if it means overpaying. our bullpen is fine. it was one of the best in the league last year, and most of the guys are cheap and/or replaceable.
so, here's the new staff
1. felix
2. burnett/millwood
3. moyer
4. pinero
5. nageotte
closer. lh guardado
setup. rh soriano
setup. lh sherrill
middle. rh putz
middle. rh mateo
middle. rh meche
middle. lh thorton
alright, a few notes. meche's spot, could be replaced with any number of people, including scott atchinson, clint nageotte, or jesse foppert in case meche gets traded or bumped back into the starting role. there are a bunch of people that could be competing for the number 5 spot in the rotation, including nageotte, foppert, meche, and any aaron sele type crap we pick up in the offseason to take away time from our prospects who deserve a shot. or we could screw the pooch entirely and keep ryan franklin. we have to take a flyer on someone this year. we are too weak in starting pitching to expect to have 5 proven major leaguers in the rotation on opening day. i don't mind thorton so much, as long as he's on the bottom of the bullpen. he's fun to watch, at least, even if he can walk 3 runs in with the bases loaded. i don't understand why we have a 7 man bullpen anyways, but as long as he's number 7 and not number 6, we're cool.
so, you ask, who is on my opening season roster? i don't think we are going to get huff or dunn. i think they are going to cost more than the m's are willing to spend. in huff's case, they might be right, but dunn would be worth whatever we gave up for him. i think wilkerson is a cheap option that is definitely available, so we have the best chance of getting him out of the 3 without depleting our ml roster.
lineup
1. ichiro lh rf
2. betancourt rh ss
3. wilkerson lh lf
4. sexson rh 1b
5. beltre rh 3b
6. ibanez lh dh
7. johjima rh c
8. reed lh cf
9. lopez rh 2b
bench
utility: bloomquist rh
inf: morse rh
of: bigbie lh
c: rivera
rotation
1. hernandez rh
2. burnett rh
3. moyer lh
4. pinero rh
5. nageotte rh
bullpen
closer: guardado lh
setup: soriano rh
setup: sherrill lh
middle: mateo rh
middle: putz rh
middle: meche rh
middle: thorton lh
even without dunn or huff this year, it is better than last year. and next year, jeff clement our superstud catching prospect could be making a move on the dh position. or, we could go balls out and sign dunn or huff instead of trading for him this year. i am wary of huff though, i'm all about the dunn, even though i am just dreaming thinking we could get him in the first place. just say no to ryan franklin...
this year is going to be different than last year. last year there were a bunch of good players available. this year there are only two free agents we should be interested in, but i'm getting ahead of myself. so, lets get ready. what do we have now, what do we need, and what is expendable in the event of a trade?
lets look at the batting order (including kenji johjima, because we already have him signed), because the rotation is kind of depressing. i think this is roughly how we ended off last year
1. Ichiro lh rf
2. betancourt rh ss
3. ibanez lh lf/dh
4. sexson rh 1b
5. beltre rh 3b
6. reed lh cf
7. lopez rh 2b
8. OPEN dh/lf
9. johjima rh c
as you can see, we have a spot to add people. i left number 8 open because the people who would have been playing in that spot should not be in our starting lineup next year. the fact that they were last season is one of the main reasons we lost 90 games again. i don't mind them on the bench, but they aren't good enough to start. lf or dh, and we need to add power, preferably left handed power due to the dimensions of safeco field and the short porch down the right field line. ibanez is not the greatest defender, but he is adequate. left center in safeco is huuuuuge, so it would be nice to have someone a little better out there. that being said, jeremy reed was dominant in center last year, which will definitely help ease the pressure on the left fielder. playing center in safeco is probably the most difficult outfield assignment in the major leagues. having a great centerfielder like mike cameron was out there is invaluable to a team that has to play 82 games at home in seattle.
we were expecting jeremy reed to be ok, but eventually be shifted to left because his hitting was more developed than his defense. but jeremy reed excelled. he was awesome. he made diving catches, showed flashes of things to come around the wall, and managed to rank as one of the top outfielders in just about every defensive metric in the crazy world of baseball stats. none of the metrics are consistant at all, but if they all agree on someone, i'm guessing it means good things. i am pissed that his name is being thrown around as trade bait, or that there is talk about replacing him in center with people like juan pierre. reeds hitting was worse than we expected it to be last year, which shouldn't be a surprise. he was 23, and it was his rookie year. i think we should expect him to improve offensively, and that we should leave him in center, which is such a premium position especially for the mariners.
the talk over at my favorite baseball blog is all about jaque jones in left field. he is one of the better defensive left fielders in the game, and he hits for a little power but doesn't get on base much. he has been doing this in minnesota in the metro dome, so i am a little skeptical. but he is left handed, which means he could outperform everyone's expectations like raul ibanez does. still, i think there are better options via trade because jaque jones is going to get overpaid to the tune of 3 years $21 million before this thin offseason is over, and we don't want to get tied down with a contract like that for such a mediocre player. it is just a bad season to be signing free agents. we have much more important concerns in the rotation, and we should devote as much money as we can there so we can at least overpay for good players. anyways, back to the trades. usually when i think about trades, i have a few criteria to keep myself honest. i usually only look at players from bad teams with stupid GM's so i don't have to give up our best players in the process, and i never look at our division rivals. so, i present 3 options. first, the two that are obtainable. Brad Wilkerson of the nationals and Aubrey Huff of the devil rays. the nationals and devil rays can't add to payroll this offseason, so both could probably be had for prospects and spare parts. the nationals still don't have an owner, so their gm doesn't have any financial flexibility. the devil rays have cheap owners, so they are going to suck for as long as they exist. wilkerson will probably make around $5m next year, and huff will make $6.75 if we could flip someone like ryan franklin in a deal including a cheap bullpen guy or a lower pitching prospect for wilkerson, or maybe a 3 way with the marlins that send pierre to the nationals to be their leadoff hitter, or maybe a better prospect like shin shoo choo along with franklin or gil meche straight up for huff, i'd do it. but the guy we really should be focusing on is adam dunn. the reds would be stupid to give him up, but the reds are stupid so this might be exactly the type of move they would make. dunn will probably make $5+m next season, but the season after that he could be in line for $12+ in free agency. so if we can trade for him and immediately sign him to an extension, we might be able to save some money and ensure we get him before the madness begins next season. it would cost us, probably someone like pinero and two good prospects, but it might be worth it. also, one quick move for our bench. colorado would trade us larry bigbe for yorvit torrealba. neither are going to make a difference on our team, but bigbe would give us a 4th of and a lh pinch hitter on the bench. torrealba just wants to start, and colorado doesn't have a catcher.
which brings us to pitching. we have about $20m to spend right now, and only one player as a lock for the rotation. after felix, there is a long freefall to the basement and ryan franklin. we are probably going to have to spend $7m for moyer, which leaves us $12-$15M for pitching. there are only two free agent pitchers worth looking at, aj burnett and kevin millwood. both are going to cost all of our $12-15M to sign, probably at 4-5 years. but we have to get one of them or we are going to suck again. even if it means overpaying. our bullpen is fine. it was one of the best in the league last year, and most of the guys are cheap and/or replaceable.
so, here's the new staff
1. felix
2. burnett/millwood
3. moyer
4. pinero
5. nageotte
closer. lh guardado
setup. rh soriano
setup. lh sherrill
middle. rh putz
middle. rh mateo
middle. rh meche
middle. lh thorton
alright, a few notes. meche's spot, could be replaced with any number of people, including scott atchinson, clint nageotte, or jesse foppert in case meche gets traded or bumped back into the starting role. there are a bunch of people that could be competing for the number 5 spot in the rotation, including nageotte, foppert, meche, and any aaron sele type crap we pick up in the offseason to take away time from our prospects who deserve a shot. or we could screw the pooch entirely and keep ryan franklin. we have to take a flyer on someone this year. we are too weak in starting pitching to expect to have 5 proven major leaguers in the rotation on opening day. i don't mind thorton so much, as long as he's on the bottom of the bullpen. he's fun to watch, at least, even if he can walk 3 runs in with the bases loaded. i don't understand why we have a 7 man bullpen anyways, but as long as he's number 7 and not number 6, we're cool.
so, you ask, who is on my opening season roster? i don't think we are going to get huff or dunn. i think they are going to cost more than the m's are willing to spend. in huff's case, they might be right, but dunn would be worth whatever we gave up for him. i think wilkerson is a cheap option that is definitely available, so we have the best chance of getting him out of the 3 without depleting our ml roster.
lineup
1. ichiro lh rf
2. betancourt rh ss
3. wilkerson lh lf
4. sexson rh 1b
5. beltre rh 3b
6. ibanez lh dh
7. johjima rh c
8. reed lh cf
9. lopez rh 2b
bench
utility: bloomquist rh
inf: morse rh
of: bigbie lh
c: rivera
rotation
1. hernandez rh
2. burnett rh
3. moyer lh
4. pinero rh
5. nageotte rh
bullpen
closer: guardado lh
setup: soriano rh
setup: sherrill lh
middle: mateo rh
middle: putz rh
middle: meche rh
middle: thorton lh
even without dunn or huff this year, it is better than last year. and next year, jeff clement our superstud catching prospect could be making a move on the dh position. or, we could go balls out and sign dunn or huff instead of trading for him this year. i am wary of huff though, i'm all about the dunn, even though i am just dreaming thinking we could get him in the first place. just say no to ryan franklin...
